Beggar thy neighbor

The term “beggar thy neighbor” refers to protectionism policies which have become more popular in this economic crisis. Due to heavy deflation, which causes unemployment and illness of the domestic market, some countries have to carry out policies seeking for their own benefits first, rather than to contribute to the global economic balance and stability.

As opposed to free trade, protectionism restrains trade among nations. Those policies aim to enhance domestic market and to reduce the rate of unemployment. Protectionism governments might impose either tariffs or quotas on imports to restrain imports and by doing so, they shift demand onto domestic production. Two instances are from Mexico and Russia. Another measure which is often used by protectionists is to devaluate the domestic currency, or to use exchange rate manipulation. Doing so will raise the cost of imports and lower the cost of exports, thus improve that country’s trade balance. (Noted that this policy can lead to inflation.) China is one of the recent examples that use this policy.

The benefits of free trade can be explained by David Ricardo’s comparative advantage theory, as the illustration below.

P[world] is the original price of the product and P[tariff] is the higher price after imposing a tariff. Because of the tariff, a tax revenue is created and consumer surplus decreases by a higher rate than the increase of producer surplus. As a result, there is societal loss as the two pink pieces.

In this crisis, a cure for the economics downturn is to inhance the global trade, which was predicted two days ago in the WTO’s most pessimistic report in its 62-year history. This report estimates that the global trade will slump by 9 per cent in this year and the falling rate in developed countries will be higher than that of developing ones, which is just 2-3 percent. Therefore, protectionism policies as a barrier against free trade should be prevented by all the countries. According to World Bank, it is estimated that 17 of the 20 countries coming to London on April 2 had already broken free-trade promises. So, the firm stand against protectionism which many expect the G-20 to take seems having lack of the support from its own members.

Update (27/3): Hanoi plans to support its export by widening the daily trading band for VND, which means allowing the dong to deppreciate faster. (@Financial Times)

China and the IMF

Banker reading to child in bed.

Banker reading to child in bed.

As I’ve said in yesterday’s entry, it is expected that the IMF will at least double its budget to $US500 billion to deal with the increasing toxic assets from banks, especially recently emerging ones from banks in central and eastern Europe. This issue will be one of the themes of next week’s G-20 leaders meeting. But the concern is how to refund the resources of the IMF. The answer of this tricky question is relied on some dynamically emerging economies such as China, India, Russia and Brazil. Whereas the EU accounts for 32 per cent of IMF’s budget, the US 17 percent, China’s stake is only 3.7 per cent. So for the bigger institution where the world are currently working together and specifically for their greater voting rights, developing countries has to share the bigger stakes in IMF’s resources.

Among the developing world, why is China a better place to rely on? It is because of China’s sound fiscal position, low public debt burden, huge surplus and significant amount of foreign currency holdings (which was about $US2 trillion in last year).

However, playing an increasingly important role in global financial ground China also realizes that how risky it is when putting up more cash on such an instrument of some wealthy nations which are now injured the most by the current economic tumour. China wants an international economic order less dominated by the US and several other developed countries. Moreover, the unique role of the US dollar as the world’s standard bothers China’s leaders much.

As reponse to the financial crisis and to the near-coming G-20 summit, China central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan has proposed the creation of a new global reserve currency in place of the US dollar, according to The People’s Bank of China. He explained that China has been holding a great deal of US government bonds, together with a huge amount of foreign currency reserve on its account; therefore, any fluctuations in the value of the dollar and changes in US economic policies will have a sharp influence on China economy and the exchange rates. In short, China wants more control on the factors which drive its national fund. It wants more freedom on this anti-monopoly ground. Of course, Obama’s administration (and Kevin Rudd also) rejected the Chinese call.

(In fact, the prelude of using a world single currency was the use of SDRs, which stands for “special drawing rights”. It was created by the IMF in the 1960s and is valued by a basket of major currencies such as US dollar, the euro, Japanese yen and the pound.)

Although Mr Zhou’s suggestion is unfeasible in a short- to-medium term, this idea shows the China’s desire, or even request, for having a louder voice on the debating table.

Update (26/3):

  • After the Chinese call about the replacement global currency, Obama, Geithner (Treasury Secrtary) and Bernanke (chief of Federal Reserve) showed their defence behind the greenback yesterday. Also, economists assert that the shift away from dollar would create a great credit turmoil.
  • China presently holds about $US1 trillion in US debt and $US1.95 trillion inits total foreign reserves.

Kevin Rudd and the G-20

Woman says to man as they walk down street.

Woman says to man as they walk down street.

On April 2, the G-20 summit will be hold in London to discuss three main issues: the global economy’s stability (included the aspects of growth and employment), global financial system and international financial institutions reforming (particularly IMF). G-2o is the meeting of financial ministers and central bank governors in the world’s most 19 largest economies and the EU. As the 15th biggest economy, Australia plays an important part in this international forum and as her prime minister, Kevin Rudd has to deliver a highly influential voice in such a big play like that.

So, what message will Kevin Rudd deliver?

In the first place, he strongly believes that it is the right time for US to return as the global leader in the battle against the global economic crisis. Before heading to London, he has a first face-to-face meeting with Barack Obama in Washington, focusing on four main themes: the upcoming G-20 summit, the US-Australia alliance, Afghanistan policy and China. In this talk, Kevin expects US action to remove toxic assets in big banks’ balance sheets. As being said by Tim Duy, “For Bernanke and Geithner, there are no bad assets. Only misunderstood assets.” In addition, China will also be a significant topic. his message to Obama is to bring China into the global system and to create a new institutional framework for the 21st century.

Another considerable message is about the reforming of IMF. It is expected that the G-20 will come up with the plan to double or even tripple the IMF’s $US250 billion budget. If so, Kevin Rudd suggests that China would have to contribute funds (China has currently a 3.7 per cent voting stake in the IMF), and thus, have more influence in this financial institution. He argues that in reforming the IMF, some emerging economies should have greater voice on the global governance table. More specifically, it is just one step of Kevin to lobby for Beijing in new global order. Moreover, the issue of restructuring IMF is also put on the table. Hitherto the managing director of the IMF is always a European.

With relentless work for G-20 preparation, it is expected that the Australia’s PM will bring his country close to the centre of global institutions. And as I have said, it is a big play, not just for Kevin but for any leaders.

A photo a day

A photo of Kanh Kuk, my aggressively quite housemate.

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Some photos

I took these photos of some stuffs in my room.

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